Replication Probability

“Replicability of findings is at the heart of any empirical science” (Asendorpf, Conner, De Fruyt, et al., 2013, p. 108) The idea that scientific results should be reliably demonstrable under controlled circumstances has a special status in science. In contrast to our high expectations for replicability, unfortunately, recent reports suggest that only about 36% (Open Science Collaboration, 2015) to 62% (Camerer, Dreber, Holzmeister, et al.