Replication markets are prediction markets run in conjunction with systematic replication projects. We conducted such markets for the Replication Project: Psychology (RPP), Experimental Economics Replication Project (EERP), Social Science Replication Project (SSRP) and the Many Labs 2 Project (ML2). The participants in these markets trade ‘bets’ on the outcome of replications.
For several years now scientists—in at least some disciplines—have been concerned about low rates of replicability. As scientists in those fields, we worry about the development of cumulative knowledge, and about wasted research effort. An additional challenge is to consider end-users (decision and policy makers) and other consumers of our work: what level of trust should they place in the published literature[1]?